Why some Countries are more Resilient in South Asia to Confront COVID-19 Pandemic and Recovery?

Abstract

This study explores the regional pattern of association between health risk exposure and resilience outcome in South Asian countries with the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic. This exercise unveils the elements of resilience that contribute to get prepared in confronting COVID-19 risk in South Asia, using secondary information and knowledge from the Governments, WHO, UNDP Human Development Index (HDI), European Commission’s COVID-19 Risk Index and the World Bank’s Air Connectivity Index. Methodology and scope of the paper differs from previous contributions from a holistic policy point of view, since human development, geo-demographic vulnerability, government effectiveness and socio-economic outcome variables are considered in context to the public health condition and epidemic risk at the national level. Based on statistical evidences, South Asian countries fall into three categories (i) high resilient with low pandemic impact (Maldives, Bhutan and Sri Lanka), (ii) Medium resilient having high impact (India and Bangladesh) and (iii) Low resilient but high impact (Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nepal). Beyond resilience, this study also flags geo-demographic issues such as population density, geographical isolation either being island or landlocked mountainous countries and air travel connectivity as an influencing or barrier factors in spreading of epidemic disease. This paper serves the purpose of designing risk informed effective policy responses to constrain negative effects of future pandemic and similar infectious diseases and sensitize countries to get prepared for “build back better” as well.